Abstract of “too many errors”

The Nextera “study” by KPI Ninja misappropriated the prestige of a Johns Hopkins research team; has errors of arithmetic in Nextera’s favor; made poor cohort selection choices that skew, in Nextera’s favor, employer claims cost and employee utilization comparisons; excludes employee cost-sharing and pharma data; ignores employee cost-sharing that undermines Nextera’s savings claim; ignores a $750 HRA that undermines Nextera’s savings claim; ignores a $1600/year difference in premiums that drives families with children into Nextera; did not address induced utilization that undermines Nextera’s savings claim; relies on questionable risk measurement results that favor Nextera; relied on an undisclosed and unvalidated methodology for obtaining diagnostic codes from EHR, but that are said to have produced results favorable to Nextera; failed even to use the results of their own dubious risk measurement; omits the employer’s cost for direct primary care itself, thereby overestimating Nextera’s ability to produce savings on chronic conditions; fails to discuss or even disclose many other key details of the study methodology, e.g, the criteria for and the scope of outlier exclusion or how, and even whether, $800,000 in employer HRA costs were counted; and accepts without batting an eye an IP admission rate for a non-Nextera cohort of teacher-heavy school district employees and their children that exceeded by 30% the IP admit rate for Medicare patients who are three decades older.

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