Attn: AEG/WP. Milliman study implies 12.6% downstream care cost reductions for DPC.

The AEG/WP plan still isn’t likely to work. A $95 PMPM fee, increasing at the same rate as other medical expenses, and coupled to a 12.6% reduction down stream would evaporate all of AEG/WP’s claimed billion savings. “Healthcare Innovations in Georgia:Two Recommendations”, the report prepared by the Anderson Economic Group and Wilson Partners (AEG/WP) forContinue reading “Attn: AEG/WP. Milliman study implies 12.6% downstream care cost reductions for DPC.”

Milliman’s valuation of DPC health care services at $8 PMPM rests on faulty data.

If I were a direct primary care practitioner, I’d be mildly miffed at Milliman’s reducing what I do to a series of CPT codes. I’d be more worried by Milliman’s team setting the value of my health care services at $8 PMPM. The $8 PMPM figure Milliman declared as the health care service utilization toContinue reading “Milliman’s valuation of DPC health care services at $8 PMPM rests on faulty data.”

ATTN: Milliman. Even if Union County had not waived the $750 deductible, the County still would have lost money on DPC.

The lead actuary on Milliman’s study of direct primary care has suggested that the employer (Union County, NC, thinly disguised) would have had a positive ROI on its DPC plan if it had not waived the deductible for DPC members. It ain’t so. Here’s the Milliman figure presumed to support that point. It is trueContinue reading “ATTN: Milliman. Even if Union County had not waived the $750 deductible, the County still would have lost money on DPC.”

Risk adjustment, and more, badly needed for KPI Ninja’s Strada-brag

Amended 6/26/20 3:15AM The Milliman report’s insistence on the important of risk adjustment will no doubt see the DPC movement pouring a lot of their old wine into new bottles, and perhaps even the creation of new wine. In the meantime, the old gang has been demanding attention to some of the old wine stillContinue reading “Risk adjustment, and more, badly needed for KPI Ninja’s Strada-brag”

Iora’s Las Vegas experience is an inapt model for DPC, and shows no real cost reduction.

While DPC Coalition features an Iora Clinic in Las Vegas as a data model of the joys of direct primary care, it is simply not representative of a general population. That clinic focused on a very high need population, every member chronically ill. We are looking at people with $11,000 claim levels at 2014 prices;Continue reading “Iora’s Las Vegas experience is an inapt model for DPC, and shows no real cost reduction.”

Union County Direct Primary Care in a nutshell.

Union County is estimated by Milliman to have lost money. The odds that Union County saved more than 5.2% are less than one in twenty. The odds that Union County saved 28% or anything near that are miniscule. Do you remember when DPC was claimed to be saving Union County $1.25 Million per year? SoContinue reading “Union County Direct Primary Care in a nutshell.”

dpcreferee’s 2017 op-ed on Union County’s failure to save with DPC proved to be almost spot on.

In February 2017, I sent the op-ed piece below to the Charlotte Observer. It was not selected for publication. But it has been proven accurate in a detailed, independent study by a team of health care actuaries from the Milliman firm, known widely for its health care work. The study was prepared for the SocietyContinue reading “dpcreferee’s 2017 op-ed on Union County’s failure to save with DPC proved to be almost spot on.”

DPC and the pandemic: more capable than FFS? Or less?

DPC advocates are talking a lot these days about how a pandemic shows the superiority of direct primary care. There are aspects they don’t talk about. The Milliman study’s survey — the same survey DPC advocates turn to when emphasizing, for example, how much telemedicine DPC clinics do — indicated that over a third ofContinue reading “DPC and the pandemic: more capable than FFS? Or less?”

Dr Priceline’s downstream cost reduction plan cannot simply be scaled up.

Dr. Lee Gross of Epiphany, a direct primary care leader, brags about the great discounts he gets for his patients on downstream procedures like advanced radiology. And, specifically, he proudly lets us know that a big part of this involves accessing advanced equipment during slack hours. This is, of course, the same strategy by whichContinue reading “Dr Priceline’s downstream cost reduction plan cannot simply be scaled up.”

Making cost reduction claims more honest and helpful to decision-makers — random thoughts.

Claims of cost reductions need to look comprehensively at all costs. Consider this chart from an Iora presentation of some years ago. The net drop in spending would look a lot bigger if prescription drugs (the green bar) were not part of the picture. But, a lot of how primary care, direct or otherwise, worksContinue reading “Making cost reduction claims more honest and helpful to decision-makers — random thoughts.”