The mixed bag of Milliman earns a final grade: B

Skillful actuarial work on risk adjustment. A clear warning against relying on studies that ignored risk adjustment. Implicit repudiation of a decade of unfounded brags. An admirable idea on “isolating the impact of DPC model” from the bad decisions of a studied employer. But then, a failure to realize an important prerequisite for performing thatContinue reading “The mixed bag of Milliman earns a final grade: B”

ATTN: Milliman. Even if Union County had not waived the $750 deductible, the County still would have lost money on DPC.

The lead actuary on Milliman’s study of direct primary care has suggested that the employer (Union County, NC, thinly disguised) would have had a positive ROI on its DPC plan if it had not waived the deductible for DPC members. It ain’t so. Here’s the Milliman figure presumed to support that point. It is trueContinue reading “ATTN: Milliman. Even if Union County had not waived the $750 deductible, the County still would have lost money on DPC.”

11% claims reduction, with no adjustment for selection bias, is pretty tame.

Paladina Health maintains a news and information page on its website. As of the start of 2020, Paladina’s most recent entry of favorable cost reduction results is entitled “Paladina Health gives Akron schools a cost-saving model” and links to this Crain’s business report of an 11% reduction in claims. There was no adjustment for selectionContinue reading “11% claims reduction, with no adjustment for selection bias, is pretty tame.”

A few brags from a few DPC companies is not a sound basis for public policy decisions.

Leave aside the specific critiques of the last twenty or so posts. The support for direct primary care in the report Healthcare Innovations in Georgia: Two Recommendations ultimately turns on the source material from which the report authors drew the key assumption that direct primary care reduces downstream care cost by 15%. That material comprisesContinue reading “A few brags from a few DPC companies is not a sound basis for public policy decisions.”

Total claims cost caution: when DPC is implemented primary care claims vanish. AEG/WP’s 15% estimate is not conservative in the least.

When the direct primary advocates toss out figures about overall claims cost reductions, it’s important to carefully separate overall cost, downstream care claims costs, and overall claims costs. For example, the authors of the AEG/WP pitch for DPC in Georgia, have assumed a 15% reduction in downstream care costs and claimed that it “represents theContinue reading “Total claims cost caution: when DPC is implemented primary care claims vanish. AEG/WP’s 15% estimate is not conservative in the least.”

The two largest and most current AEG/WP examples of downstream cost reduction failed to adequately address selection bias.

Although the AEG/WP report does not support its key claim with data or citation, the report’s authors responded to my request for information by indicating their sources. One of them was an e-zine article about the CHI clinic. The other two were promotional brochures, denominated case studies used, by the DPC companies Paladina and Nextera,Continue reading “The two largest and most current AEG/WP examples of downstream cost reduction failed to adequately address selection bias.”

Monthly direct primary care fees will not hold steady at $70 for a decade.

That alone makes the AEG/WP report off by about $500,000,000. In “Healthcare Innovations in Georgia:Two Recommendations”, the report prepared by the Anderson Economic Group and Wilson Partners (AEG/WP) for the Georgia Public Policy Foundation, the authors clearly explained their computations and made clear the assumptions underlying their report. One of the assumptions was that theContinue reading “Monthly direct primary care fees will not hold steady at $70 for a decade.”

$70 lowballs the monthly direct primary care fee.

On that score alone, the AEG/WP report is off by $750,000,000. In “Healthcare Innovations in Georgia:Two Recommendations”, the report prepared by the Anderson Economic Group and Wilson Partners (AEG/WP) for the Georgia Public Policy Foundation, the authors clearly explained their computations and made clear the assumptions underlying their report. One of the assumptions was thatContinue reading “$70 lowballs the monthly direct primary care fee.”