Do economic forces lead to healthier patients self-selecting to member- funded DPC practice?

Yes. And, favorable selection to member-funded DPC is likely even greater than that already actuarially documented for employer funded DPC. [D]o economic forces lead to healthier patients self-selecting to a DPC practice? . . . . . . The value proposition for chronically ill patients– needing frequent visits and savings on ancillary services (labs, meds,Continue reading “Do economic forces lead to healthier patients self-selecting to member- funded DPC practice?”

Nextera and Paladina: a race to the top of Mount Brag

In 2015, Qliance still towered over all in the world of Direct Primary Care bragging with its claim of 20% overall cost reductions. Even that, of course, was quite a come down from the extravagant claims previously spewed under the Qliance banner; fond memories still linger of those heady days when the Heritage Foundation drooledContinue reading “Nextera and Paladina: a race to the top of Mount Brag”

KPI Ninja’s Nextera risk measurement charade

Abstract: The Nextera “study” by KPI Ninja misappropriated the prestige of a Johns Hopkins research team to support its risk measurement claims; relied on an undisclosed and unvalidated methodology for obtaining population risk measurements; obtained highly dubious risk measurement results; and sharply mischaracterized the significance of those results. In the end, because applying even theirContinue reading “KPI Ninja’s Nextera risk measurement charade”

KPI Ninja’s Nextera analysis: more than enough problems.

Three major adjustments are needed, even without correcting the IP admit rate problem or arriving at a more reasonable risk adjustment. Comparing data from Nextera patients and non-Nextera patients in the SVVSD programs requires three major adjustments which KPI Ninja never attempted. Computations here. Because of the different benefit structures, the district’s claim costs forContinue reading “KPI Ninja’s Nextera analysis: more than enough problems.”

Nextera did not reduce inpatient hospital admissions by 92.7%.

Abstract: KPI Ninja’s report on Nextera’s direct primary care plan for employees of a Colorado school district clinic claims profoundly good results: nearly $1000 per year in savings for every Nextera clinic member and a staggering 92.7% reduction in inpatient hospital admissions. Both claims rest on the proposition that a population of middle-aged. middle-class, white-color,Continue reading “Nextera did not reduce inpatient hospital admissions by 92.7%.”

Nextera’s Next Era in Cherry-Picking Machine Design

Note: revised and redated for proximity to related material. Original version June 27, 2020. In June of 2020, Nextera HealthCare had a hot new brag: These results were not risk adjusted. But they desperately needed to be. The St Vrain Valley School District had this health benefit structure for its employees during the period studied:Continue reading “Nextera’s Next Era in Cherry-Picking Machine Design”

DPC cherry-picking: the defense speaks. Part 2.

Update: In the fall of 2020, KPI Ninja released the first study that relies on it’s new risk information technology. I find it sadly opaque. Recap of Part 1 The direct primary care community has long tried to support claims that DPC reduces overall health care costs by 20% to 40% with non-risk-adjusted cost-reduction dataContinue reading “DPC cherry-picking: the defense speaks. Part 2.”

DPC cherry-picking: the defense speaks. Part 1.

Jump to Part 2. Within days of the Milliman report warning of the “imperative to control for patient selection in DPC studies [lest] differences in cost due to underlying patient differences [] be erroneously assigned as differences caused by DPC”, the first rumbling of resistance from the DPC advocacy community emerged. This was a suggestion,Continue reading “DPC cherry-picking: the defense speaks. Part 1.”

CHANGED GRADE: The mixed bag of Milliman earns a final grade: B+

Skillful actuarial work on risk adjustment. A clear warning against relying on studies that ignored risk adjustment. Implicit repudiation of a decade of unfounded brags. An admirable idea on “isolating the impact of DPC model” from the bad decisions of a studied employer. Milliman should have recognized that the health service resources that go intoContinue reading “CHANGED GRADE: The mixed bag of Milliman earns a final grade: B+”

RESCINDED: ATTN: Milliman. An employer’s cost sharing plan affects claims experience.

In its recent assessment of the impact of the direct primary care model, Milliman took a two track approach. An employer ROI based approach included comparing claims experience for a group of employees who opted to receive primary care from a DPC clinic versus those using traditional FFS PCPs; in addition, the ROI analysis alsoContinue reading “RESCINDED: ATTN: Milliman. An employer’s cost sharing plan affects claims experience.”