Two new DPC brags failed to show bona fide risk-adjusted savings; together, they make clear that DPC brags rely on cherry-picking.

Two recent DPC brags fit together in a telling way. Nextera Healthcare reported non-risk-adjusted claims data indicating that employees of a Colorado school district who selected Nextera’s DPC option had total costs that were 30% lower than those who selected a traditional insurance option. But that employer’s benefit package confers huge cash advantages (up toContinue reading “Two new DPC brags failed to show bona fide risk-adjusted savings; together, they make clear that DPC brags rely on cherry-picking.”

Nothing huge, but a possible small win for DirectAccessMD cost reduction claims.

The DirectAccessMD clinic that serves the employees of Anderson County, SC, is run by a tireless advocate for, and deep believer in DPC, Dr J Shane Purcell. Here the employer, with Dr Purcell’s apparent support, has taken steps that seems to have somewhat mitigated the selection bias that is baked into most other direct primaryContinue reading “Nothing huge, but a possible small win for DirectAccessMD cost reduction claims.”

CHANGED GRADE: The mixed bag of Milliman earns a final grade: B+

Skillful actuarial work on risk adjustment. A clear warning against relying on studies that ignored risk adjustment. Implicit repudiation of a decade of unfounded brags. An admirable idea on “isolating the impact of DPC model” from the bad decisions of a studied employer. Milliman should have recognized that the health service resources that go intoContinue reading “CHANGED GRADE: The mixed bag of Milliman earns a final grade: B+”

RESCINDED: ATTN: Milliman. An employer’s cost sharing plan affects claims experience.

In its recent assessment of the impact of the direct primary care model, Milliman took a two track approach. An employer ROI based approach included comparing claims experience for a group of employees who opted to receive primary care from a DPC clinic versus those using traditional FFS PCPs; in addition, the ROI analysis alsoContinue reading “RESCINDED: ATTN: Milliman. An employer’s cost sharing plan affects claims experience.”

Attn: AEG/WP. Milliman study implies 12.6% downstream care cost reductions for DPC.

The AEG/WP plan still isn’t likely to work. A $95 PMPM fee, increasing at the same rate as other medical expenses, and coupled to a 12.6% reduction down stream would evaporate all of AEG/WP’s claimed billion savings. “Healthcare Innovations in Georgia:Two Recommendations”, the report prepared by the Anderson Economic Group and Wilson Partners (AEG/WP) forContinue reading “Attn: AEG/WP. Milliman study implies 12.6% downstream care cost reductions for DPC.”

Milliman’s valuation of DPC health care services at $8 PMPM rests on faulty data.

If I were a direct primary care practitioner, I’d be mildly miffed at Milliman’s reducing what I do to a series of CPT codes. I’d be more worried by Milliman’s team setting the value of my health care services at $8 PMPM. The $8 PMPM figure Milliman declared as the health care service utilization toContinue reading “Milliman’s valuation of DPC health care services at $8 PMPM rests on faulty data.”

ATTN: Milliman. Even if Union County had not waived the $750 deductible, the County still would have lost money on DPC.

The lead actuary on Milliman’s study of direct primary care has suggested that the employer (Union County, NC, thinly disguised) would have had a positive ROI on its DPC plan if it had not waived the deductible for DPC members. It ain’t so. Here’s the Milliman figure presumed to support that point. It is trueContinue reading “ATTN: Milliman. Even if Union County had not waived the $750 deductible, the County still would have lost money on DPC.”

Risk adjustment, and more, badly needed for KPI Ninja’s Strada-brag

Amended 6/26/20 3:15AM The Milliman report’s insistence on the important of risk adjustment will no doubt see the DPC movement pouring a lot of their old wine into new bottles, and perhaps even the creation of new wine. In the meantime, the old gang has been demanding attention to some of the old wine stillContinue reading “Risk adjustment, and more, badly needed for KPI Ninja’s Strada-brag”

For Qliance, a plausible net savings is 6.8%

There are three main steps to get from a 19.6% savings claim by Qliance to a plausible number: (1) examining the validity of Qliance’s claim that it collected $251 more per employee than the employers were spending for fees for service primary; (2) including the drug costs which Qliance chose to omit from the dataContinue reading “For Qliance, a plausible net savings is 6.8%”

Iora’s Las Vegas experience is an inapt model for DPC, and shows no real cost reduction.

While DPC Coalition features an Iora Clinic in Las Vegas as a data model of the joys of direct primary care, it is simply not representative of a general population. That clinic focused on a very high need population, every member chronically ill. We are looking at people with $11,000 claim levels at 2014 prices;Continue reading “Iora’s Las Vegas experience is an inapt model for DPC, and shows no real cost reduction.”